Construction machinery: industry demand is expected to bottom out and rebound. The sales data of various construction machinery products in July are gradually being disclosed. As July and August are the traditional off-season, we expect that the month-on-month and year-on-year sales are still in the process of declining, and are expected to bottom out in the near future, and September sales are expected to usher in seasonality Pick up. We believe that in the bottom area of the industry boom, we should pay close attention to changes in the industry boom and gradually increase the weight of investment allocation. In particular, we must closely follow the construction of affordable housing and its pulling effect on industry demand.
Railway equipment: The industry's short-term negatives are gradually digested, and the industry has moved from rapid growth to steady growth. The railway equipment industry has been bearish recently. "Wenzhou incident", "Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail operation accident", "Railway speed reduction and investment", "CNR recall CRH380BL" and "Comprehensive railway inspection" and other information have brought railway equipment companies More negative effects, related stocks have gradually been digested after substantial adjustments to short-term negative effects.
The deceleration of high-speed rail construction will affect the growth of the industry. We believe that the next two years will move from high-speed growth to steady growth, but there will be no slow growth or even negative growth that the market is worried about.
Shipbuilding: The industry is still in a downturn, focusing on topics such as asset injection expectations and aircraft carrier military industry. In the recent global new ship market, with the exception of Greek shipowners’ LNG new ship orders and some luxury yachts, the transaction prices of other ship types are still running at a low level, and there are few bright spots in the transaction volume. We maintain our judgment of the global shipbuilding industry's short-term downturn. For this sector, we still recommend paying attention to the asset injection expectations and thematic investment opportunities such as aircraft carrier military industry.
The heavy machinery industry is still recommended to focus on the coal machinery sub-sector. The sub-sectors of heavy machinery are still diverging. The demand for equipment such as metal smelting, wind power, thermal power, hydropower, nuclear power and chemical industry is still relatively sluggish, while the sub-sectors such as coal machinery maintain a relatively high boom. In this sector, we still recommend focusing on the coal mining machinery sub-sector. Key companies include Sany International, Zhengzhou Coal Mining Machinery, Tianzai Technology, Linzhou Heavy Machinery and Shandong Mining Machinery.
Risk factors. Global economic fluctuation risks, domestic macro-control risks, credit crunch risks, etc.
Follow the portfolio this week. Affected by factors such as the European debt crisis, the downgrade of U.S. debt, the high level of domestic inflation and the decline of PMI, the recent market adjustment has been relatively large. In this downturn, we believe that we should continue to focus on defense and pay more attention to industry leaders with low valuations and stable operations and small companies with high growth potential. Our portfolio this week is still: Zoomlion, Xugong Machinery, Zhengzhou Coal Mining Machinery, CNR, Tech-Long, Dunan Environment, etc.
